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Fed Signals September Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has strongly hinted at potential interest rate cuts as early as September, driven by a perceived softening in the labor market and broader economic challenges. Market expectations for such a move are high, with the CME FedWatch Tool reflecting an approximately 85% probability. This comes as the economy faces new complexities, including the impact of tariffs and tighter immigration policies on labor force growth and GDP, as discussed by Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
The Fed's policy stance remains data-dependent, with upcoming reports on weekly jobless claims and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index being critical for assessing inflation and labor market health. While the labor market appears balanced, this equilibrium stems from a slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising downside risks to employment. The current federal funds rate, set between 4.25% and 4.5%, is considered restrictive, suggesting that an adjustment may be warranted to balance employment and price stability amidst these evolving economic conditions.
AI Boom's Bubble Fears Intensify Amidst Infrastructure Surge
The artificial intelligence sector is experiencing an unprecedented surge in investment, particularly in critical infrastructure like data centers, fueling significant concerns about a potential market bubble. Financial powerhouses such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group are facilitating multi-billion dollar loans for new facilities, while OpenAI anticipates requiring trillions for future infrastructure. This credit-fueled expansion, heavily reliant on private credit markets, occurs despite a recent MIT report indicating that 95% of corporate generative AI projects have yet to yield profit, raising questions about the long-term return on these massive capital outlays.
Prominent voices, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, acknowledge parallels to the dot-com era, cautioning that "someone’s gonna get burned." AI researcher Gary Marcus also attributes growing market skepticism to the underwhelming performance of GPT-5, arguing that current valuations are detached from actual technological capabilities. Wall Street analysts are increasingly wary, noting that the substantial investments in data centers and the shift to more asset-intensive tech companies could warrant lower stock market multiples, further intensifying the debate over the sustainability of the AI boom.
Nvidia is set to showcase its Blackwell GPUs and other AI innovations at Hot Chips 2025, reinforcing its $4.34 trillion market dominance.
Short seller Kerrisdale Capital has taken a short position on Aurora, labeling its autonomous trucking model as "hopeless and a dead end."
Spotify Technology SA has hinted at future price increases as it focuses on expanding its user base and introducing new features.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warns that states comprising nearly a third of U.S. GDP are in recession or at high risk of one, with the national economy vulnerable.
Chinese property giant Evergrande has been delisted from the Hong Kong stock exchange after an 18-month trading freeze following its liquidation.
The EU is actively seeking allies, including CPTPP members, to counter US tariffs and defend global trade rules against a dysfunctional WTO.
Bitcoin Faces Renewed Volatility After Weekend Flash Crash
Bitcoin experienced a significant flash crash over the weekend, plummeting below $111,000 following a substantial sell-off of 24,000 BTC, valued at over $300 million, by a large holder. This event, occurring amidst thin liquidity, triggered widespread forced selling and resulted in over $550 million in liquidations across both Bitcoin and Ether positions, as reported by CoinDesk. The sudden downturn erased gains that had followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Friday, with BTC briefly touching a low of $110,692 before recovering to trade around $112,800.
The market's inability to sustain gains post-Powell's speech, coupled with the flash crash, has reinforced a bearish outlook according to technical analysis. Bitcoin's price established a lower high near the previous bullish trendline, signaling a continuation of bearish price action. Indicators like the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) and the MACD histogram are poised to confirm a bearish momentum shift, suggesting further downward pressure.
Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $112,200 but faces strong resistance at the $114,000 and $114,500 levels, with analysis indicating a persistent bearish momentum. Key support lies at $110,756, with a more substantial zone near the 200-day simple moving average at $100,000. Overcoming the $114,800 resistance is crucial for a potential bullish reversal; otherwise, a fresh decline towards lower support levels remains a significant risk.
Ethereum's Ascent Amidst Market Shifts and Analyst Projections
Ether has recently demonstrated significant resilience and outperformance against Bitcoin, even as Bitcoin experienced a flash crash. Trading at $4,707, Ether posted a 9% gain over the past week, signaling a potential asset rotation by whales and institutions from BTC to ETH. This shift is further supported by increased derivatives flows for Ether and growing institutional adoption, positioning Ethereum as a favored blockchain for traditional finance on Wall Street.
This strong performance propelled Ethereum to a new all-time high of $4,956, with some analysts now targeting $10,000 for ETH and even an aspirational $20,000. Crypto analyst Astronomer, for instance, predicts substantial outperformance for ETH against BTC, citing proprietary sentiment analysis and historical market cycles. These ambitious projections underscore Ether's increasing role in stablecoins, tokenization, and smart contracts.
Despite the bullish sentiment and record highs, Ether's market shows signs of indecision and potential consolidation. A recent doji candle with a prominent upper wick indicated a stalemate between buyers and sellers, while a bearish divergence in the 14-day relative strength index suggests a possible loss of upward momentum. Ethereum is currently consolidating its gains above $4,550, with key support identified around $4,580, as the market weighs future catalysts.
Metaplanet increased its Bitcoin holdings by $11.7 million, bringing its total to 18,991 BTC, as it prepares for inclusion in the FTSE Japan Index on September 19, 2025.
Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, suggested that crypto assets could be part of a diversified investment portfolio, acknowledging their volatility but also the need for an appropriate regulatory environment.
Mavryk Network is launching its $MVRK token on MEXC on September 18, aiming to tokenize over $10 billion in real-world assets, backed by significant funding and partnerships including Dubai real estate.
Solana's price has surged past $200, with analysts predicting further gains towards $250-$300, maintaining strong support at $175 amid bullish market momentum.
The Skynet RWA Security Report forecasts the tokenized real-world asset market will reach $16 trillion by 2030, with tokenized U.S. Treasuries alone hitting $4.2 billion this year, driven by increasing institutional adoption.
