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Chipmakers Agree to US Revenue Share
Nvidia and AMD have reportedly agreed to remit 15% of their revenues from chip sales in China to the US government. This unprecedented arrangement is a condition for securing essential export licenses for their advanced semiconductors, specifically Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips. The agreement aims to facilitate continued access to the lucrative Chinese market amidst escalating trade tensions and previous restrictions on advanced chip exports, as reported by the Financial Times.
This development follows the US Commerce Department's recent issuance of H20 licenses, occurring shortly after Nvidia's CEO met with President Trump. While the Trump administration has not yet determined the allocation of these shared funds, the deal raises significant security and trade concerns, highlighting the complex intersection of geopolitics and global technology supply chains. Further details on the implications are available in this article.
Week Ahead: Economic Outlook
The week of August 11th is set to deliver critical economic insights, with a primary focus on July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures. Scheduled for Tuesday, August 12th, the CPI release will provide a detailed look at inflation trends. Following this, Friday, August 15th, will bring the July Retail Sales report, alongside key manufacturing data including the August NY Fed survey and July Industrial Production. These releases are anticipated to offer a comprehensive overview of consumer spending and industrial activity.
Concurrently, analysts are closely monitoring unemployment indicators, such as the Sahm Rule and weekly unemployment claims, for signs of economic shifts. The Sahm Rule, currently at 0.13 percentage points, serves as a real-time recession signal, with a sustained increase to 0.5 points typically indicating a downturn. While weekly claims tend to spike sharply at the onset of recessions, past increases in the Sahm Rule have not always signaled a recession, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of economic data.
Gold prices dropped over 1% after the White House clarified misinformation regarding import tariffs on one-kilo gold bars.
The Nasdaq surged over 200 points, driven by a significant rise in Apple shares and improved investor sentiment.
Tesla is scrapping its in-house Dojo AI chip program and partnering with Samsung, a strategic shift for its AI initiatives.
Donald Trump urged China to significantly increase US soybean purchases to address the trade imbalance.
Tesla Inc. has applied for a license to supply electricity in the U.K., potentially disrupting the energy market.
The robotaxi market's projected growth is crucial for Tesla's future valuation, as autonomy remains a core focus.
Bitcoin Volatility Rises Amidst Price Surge and Market Warnings
Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) has significantly increased, rising from 33 to 37, signaling a potential end to a period of market calm. The Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL) has reached its highest level in weeks, a metric that forecasts expected price swings. This uptick follows a multi-year low of approximately 26% in Bitcoin's short-term IV, reminiscent of August 2023 when a similar low preceded a substantial price surge. Over the recent weekend, Bitcoin experienced a notable jump from $116,000 to $122,000.
This weekend surge also created a gap in CME bitcoin futures, with contracts settling at $117,430 on Friday and opening at $119,000 on Monday. Historically, such gaps tend to be filled, suggesting a potential price retracement. Bitcoin is now nearing its all-time high of $123,000, entering a phase of price discovery where it surpasses previous resistance levels.
Despite August typically being a low-volume month, rising IV indicates traders are anticipating larger market movements. The recent rally was driven by spot market activity, which is considered a healthier market structure than leverage-fueled surges. However, declining open interest throughout August could amplify future price swings if market sentiment shifts, with traders like Daan Crypto Trades advising caution regarding the CME gap.
Adding a layer of caution, economist Henrik Zeberg has labeled Bitcoin a "highly risk-prone asset," asserting its price movements are closely tied to the Nasdaq. Zeberg warns that a significant downturn in the Nasdaq could lead to a substantial decline in Bitcoin's value, presenting a critical consideration for investors amidst the cryptocurrency's current volatility.
Executive Order Expands 401(k) Investment Horizons
On August 7, 2025, the White House issued a landmark executive order titled “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors.” This directive fundamentally alters the landscape for U.S. retirement savers, permitting them to allocate a portion of their 401(k) funds into a broader spectrum of investment options.
Previously restricted, 401(k) accounts can now include alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and various digital assets, notably cryptocurrencies. This pivotal policy shift aims to provide greater flexibility and potentially enhanced diversification opportunities for individuals planning for their financial future.
The executive order is anticipated to democratize access to investment vehicles traditionally reserved for institutional or high-net-worth investors, broadening the scope of retirement savings strategies. Further details on the implications of this order can be found via Bitcoin News. This development marks a significant step in U.S. retirement planning.
BNB Network Company has become the world's largest corporate holder of BNB after acquiring 200,000 tokens through a $500 million private placement.
GSR and DigiFT have launched secondary OTC trading for tokenized real-world assets, aiming to enhance liquidity in the over $13.4 billion RWA market for institutional investors.
Analyst Miles Deutscher forecasts Ethereum (ETH) could reach $7,000-$10,000 by 2025-2026, driven by AI insights and strong ETF inflows, as detailed in his analysis.
Public companies are increasingly diversifying their crypto treasuries beyond Bitcoin, with firms like SharpLink Gaming significantly increasing ETH and SOL holdings.
South Korean retail investors are increasingly pivoting from U.S. big tech stocks to stablecoin-tied shares, a trend accelerated by the U.S. GENIUS Act.
El Salvador's new Investment Banking Law, enacted August 7, allows licensed banks to hold Bitcoin for sophisticated investors, aiming to establish the nation as a regional crypto hub.
